• CN：11-2187/TH
  • ISSN：0577-6686
机械工程学报

›› 2010, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (7): 128-135.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

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基于混沌v-支持矢量机的产品销售预测模型

吴奇;严洪森   

  1. 东南大学复杂工程系统测量与控制教育部重点实验室;东南大学江苏省微纳生物医疗器械设计与制造重点实验室
  • 发布日期:2010-04-05

Forecasting Model of Product Sales Based on the Chaotic v-Support Vector Machine

WU Qi;YAN Hongsen   

  1. Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering of Ministry of Education, Southeast University Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Design and Manufacture of Micro-Nano Biomedical Instruments, Southeast University
  • Published:2010-04-05

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摘要： 针对制造企业产品销售时序具有多维、小样本、非线性和多峰等特征，将混沌理论与支持矢量机(Support vector machine, SVM) 参数优选方法相结合，证明了结构风险最小化原则是在概率意义下近似正确的, 由此得到支持矢量机的表现形式并不是唯一的，具有多样性的特征，在此基础上提出一种混沌v-支持矢量机(Chaotic-v SVM, Cv-SVM)模型，给出相应的产品销售预测方法。最后进行了汽车销售时序预测，结果表明基于Cv-SVM的产品预测方法是有效和可行的。

关键词: 混沌, 销售预测, 遗传算法, 支持矢量机

Abstract: Aiming at the product sale time series of manufacturing enterprise with multi-dimension, small samples, nonlinearity, multi-peak, etc., chaotic mapping theory is combined with parameter optimization method of support vector machine, and a kind of chaotic v-support vector machine (SVM) named Cv-SVM is proposed. And then, a product sale forecasting method is put forward. The results of application in car sale forecasting show that the forecasting method based on Cv-SVM is effective and feasible.

Key words: Chaos, Genetic algorithm, Sale forecasting, Support vector machine

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