• CN:11-2187/TH
  • ISSN:0577-6686

›› 2011, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (19): 129-135.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

一种多学科系统不确定性分析方法——协同不确定性分析法的改进

孟德彪;黄洪钟;许焕卫;张小玲;张旭东   

  1. 电子科技大学机械电子工程学院
  • 发布日期:2011-10-05

An Improvement Method for Uncertainty Analysis in Multidisciplinary System — Modified Collaborative Uncertainty Analysis

MENG Debiao;HUANG Hongzhong;XU Huanwei;ZHANG Xiaoling;ZHANG Xudong   

  1. School of Mechatronics Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology
  • Published:2011-10-05

摘要: 多学科耦合环境中,不确定性分析对于整个工程系统的设计优化过程具有非常重要的影响。多学科系统不确定性分析方法中的协同不确定性分析法(Collaborative uncertainty analysis, CUA)对于系统输出方差的求解存在计算精度较低,计算效率不高的缺点。在分析导致上述缺点的原因的基础上,提出一种改进的协同不确定性分析法(Modified collaborative uncertainty analysis, MCUA)。该方法的基本思想是将原协同不确定性分析法中分布式并行的优化体系与以泰勒近似和灵敏度分析为基础对耦合变量和系统输出的方差进行估算的方法相结合,对系统输出的均值与方差进行估算,并经过二次优化获得系统的稳健最优设计方案。算例结果表明,采用改进的协同不确定性分析法计算得到的系统输出方差相比原方法具有更高的精度,是分析多学科系统中不确定性传播的有效方法。

关键词: 多学科系统, 改进的协同不确定性分析法, 灵敏度分析, 泰勒近似, 协同不确定性分析法

Abstract: Uncertainties analysis has a significant influence on the whole design optimization process of the engineering system in multidisciplinary coupled environment. The variance calculation of collaborative uncertainty analysis (CUA), one of the methods for uncertainty analysis in multidisciplinary system, has disadvantages of poor accuracy and low efficiency. On the basis of analyzing the reasons leading to the above–mentioned disadvantages, a modified collaborative uncertainty analysis (MCUA) is presented. The MCUA is an approach that utilizes parallel and distributed optimization system of CUA, Taylor approximation and sensitivity analysis to evaluate the mean and variance of coupled variables and system outputs, and obtains the robust optimum solution through second optimization. The computational results of the example indicate that the variance of system outputs calculated by the MCUA has higher accuracy than the variance calculated by the original method, and it is an effective method to analyze the uncertainty propagation in multidisciplinary system.

Key words: Collaborative uncertainty analysis, Modified collaborative uncertainty analysis, Multidisciplinary system, Sensitivity analysis, Taylor approximation

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