人车碰撞中人体安全/危险落地机制预测

doi:10.3901/JME.2025.15.275

机械工程学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (15): 275-284.doi: 10.3901/JME.2025.15.275

• 人因与具身智能 • 上一篇

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人车碰撞中人体安全/危险落地机制预测

邹铁方^1,2, 罗鹏琛¹, 陈得着¹, 王丹琦¹, 冯浩²

1. 长沙理工大学汽车与机械工程学院长沙 410114;
2. 司法部司法鉴定重点实验室 (司法鉴定科学研究院) 上海 200063

收稿日期:2025-01-19 修回日期:2025-05-12 发布日期:2025-09-28
作者简介:邹铁方，男，1982年出生，博士，教授，硕士研究生导师。主要研究方向为交通事故再现、交通安全。E-mail：tiefang@163.com;冯浩(通信作者)，男，1982年出生，高级工程师。主要研究方向为道路交通安全、车辆安全、交通事故调查与重建。E-mail：fenghao526@163.com
基金资助:
国家杰出青年基金(52325211); 湖南省普通高等学校科技创新团队(新能源智能汽车技术,2024RC1029); 湖南省教育厅优秀青年(23B1111); 上海市科委科技行动计划标准(20DZ2205200); 司法部司法鉴定重点实验室(司法鉴定科学研究院)开放基金(KF202314)资助项目。

Prediction of Pedestrian Safety/danger Landing Mechanism in Pedestrianvehicle Collisions

ZOU Tiefang^1,2, LUO Pengchen¹, CHEN Dezhuo¹, WANG Danqi¹, FENG Hao²

1. School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114;
2. Key Lab of Forensic Science, Ministry of Justice, China (Academy of Forensic Science), Shanghai 200063

Received:2025-01-19 Revised:2025-05-12 Published:2025-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 考虑到人地碰撞损伤难以预测，为此提出一种人车碰撞中的人体安全/危险落地机制预测方法。首先选择140例再现好的真实人车碰撞案例并提取碰撞前、中、后的相关数据，通过显著性及共线性检验方法获得140组含12个参数的数据。然后通过逐步回归的方法建立10组含碰撞前、中、后3个预测模型的模型集，并从中挑选1组最优模型作为人体安全/危险落地机制的预测模型。结果显示，10组模型均能很好地预测人体安全/危险落地机制，表明人体安全/危险落地机制可预测；所选最优模型组中3个模型的平均预测准确率分别为76.5%、82.7%、87.8%，所需预测参数分别为1、3和4个。进一步分析发现，所得最优模型组中3个模型亦能很好地应用于MADYMO仿真中，且行人身高与发动机罩高度之比(身罩比)会影响模型预测效果。进而提出考虑身罩比的改进模型，发现改进模型能明显提高碰撞中模型的平均预测准确率。

关键词: 人车碰撞, 人地碰撞损伤, 人体落地机制预测, 逻辑回归

Abstract: Considering that ground related injury is difficult to predict, a prediction method for pedestrian safety/danger landing mechanisms in pedestrian-vehicle collision is proposed. Firstly, 140 reconstructed real pedestrian-vehicle collision cases are selected and relevant data before, during and after the collision are extracted. 140 sets of data containing 12 parameters are obtained by means of significance and collinearity tests. Then, 10 sets of models containing 3 prediction models before, during and after the collision are established by stepwise regression method, and 1 set of optimal models is selected as the prediction model of pedestrian safety/danger landing mechanism. The results show that all 10 sets of models can predict pedestrian safety/danger landing mechanisms well, indicating that pedestrian landing mechanisms are predictable; The average prediction accuracy of the three models in the selected optimal model set are 76.5%, 82.7%, and 87.8% with the required prediction parameters of 1, 3, and 4, respectively. Further analysis reveals that the three models in the optimal model set can also be well applied in MADYMO simulation, and the Ratio of Pedestrian height to Bonnet leading edge height(R_P-B) will affect the model prediction performance. Further, an improved model considering the R_P-Bis proposed, and it is found that the improved model can significantly improve the average prediction accuracy of the in-collision model.

Key words: pedestrian-vehicle collision, ground related injury, prediction of pedestrian landing mechanism, logistic regression

中图分类号:

U461

邹铁方, 罗鹏琛, 陈得着, 王丹琦, 冯浩. 人车碰撞中人体安全/危险落地机制预测[J]. 机械工程学报, 2025, 61(15): 275-284.

ZOU Tiefang, LUO Pengchen, CHEN Dezhuo, WANG Danqi, FENG Hao. Prediction of Pedestrian Safety/danger Landing Mechanism in Pedestrianvehicle Collisions[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2025, 61(15): 275-284.

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人车碰撞中人体安全/危险落地机制预测

Prediction of Pedestrian Safety/danger Landing Mechanism in Pedestrianvehicle Collisions

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