考虑共因失效的折叠翼展开机构可靠度分析

doi:10.3901/JME.2020.05.161

机械工程学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (5): 161-171.doi: 10.3901/JME.2020.05.161

• 航天重器——空间大型可展机构与装备专刊 • 上一篇下一篇

考虑共因失效的折叠翼展开机构可靠度分析

王博文^1,2, 谢里阳^1,2, 樊富友³, 马洪义^1,2, 赵丙峰^1,2, 李海洋^1,2

1. 东北大学机械工程与自动化学院沈阳 110819;
2. 东北大学航空动力装备振动及控制教育部重点实验室沈阳 110819;
3. 湖南云箭集团有限公司长沙 410100

收稿日期:2019-04-15 修回日期:2019-09-25 出版日期:2020-03-05 发布日期:2020-04-23
通讯作者: 谢里阳(通信作者),1962年出生,教授,博士研究生导师。主要研究方向为结构疲劳强度与可靠性、系统概率风险评估、计算机辅助工程分析等。发表论文200余篇。E-mail:lyxieneu@163.com
作者简介:王博文,男,1990年出生,博士研究生。主要研究方向为机械系统可靠性、疲劳裂纹扩展、CAE。E-mail:15102404088@163.com
基金资助:
NSFC-辽宁联合基金（U1708255）和舰载制导航空炸弹贮存可靠性试验及小样本评估技术研究（JSZL2016209B）资助项目。

Reliability Analysis of Folding Wing Deployable Mechanism Considering Common Cause Failure

WANG Bowen^1,2, XIE Liyang^1,2, FAN Fuyou³, MA Hongyi^1,2, ZHAO Bingfeng^1,2, LI Haiyang^1,2

1. School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819;
2. Key Laboratory of Vibration and Control of Aero-Propulsion Systems of Ministry of Education, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819;
3. Hunan Vanguard Group Co. Ltd, Changsha 410100

Received:2019-04-15 Revised:2019-09-25 Online:2020-03-05 Published:2020-04-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 共因失效问题是系统可靠性研究的重要内容之一，而在目前的机构运动可靠性分析中往往忽略了共因失效效应。由于影响机构运动的外部因素（载荷）与机构运动参量（运动所需时间）是不同量纲的物理量，因此目前还没有类似于"应力-强度"干涉模型这样简单有效的机构可靠度模型。通过试验与仿真相结合的方式建立折叠翼展开机构虚拟样机，并用Monte-Carlo仿真方法验证了多组折叠翼展开机构组成的系统存在共因失效现象，提出一种新的考虑共因失效效应的机构系统可靠度模型。新模型根据概率统计平均的意义重新解释了两个随机变量干涉分析的基本概念，并将其拓展为给定风速下的折叠翼展开机构条件可靠度的随机风速加权平均模型，从而得到单个折叠翼可靠度计算模型。又因为在确定的风速下系统中各折叠翼展开时间为独立同分布随机变量，将系统中各折叠翼条件可靠度在全部可能的风速范围内进行统计平均即可得到机构系统可靠度模型。算例分析表明新模型可以在考虑共因失效的条件下精确计算展开机构系统可靠度，并且在应用时只需要得到几个确定性风速下展开时间的分布来预测系统可靠度，便于工程应用。

关键词: 展开机构, 系统可靠度, 共因失效, 异量纲干涉模型, Monte-Carlo仿真

Abstract: The common cause failure problem is one of the important contents of the system reliability research, but the common cause failure effect is often neglected in the mechanism system motion reliability analysis at present. Because of the external factors (loads) which affect the motion of the mechanism and the motion parameters (time required for movement) are physical quantities of different dimensions, therefore there is no such simple and effective mechanism reliability model as the "stress-strength" interference model. The virtual prototype of folding-wing deployable mechanism system is established by combining experiment and simulation, and Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to verify the existence of common cause failure phenomenon in the system composed of multi-group folding wing deployable mechanism, a new reliability model of mechanism system considering common cause failure effect is proposed. The new model reinterprets the basic concept of interference analysis of two random variables according to the meaning of probabilistic statistical average, and extends it to the stochastic wind speed weighted average model of conditional reliability of folding wing deployable mechanism under given wind speed,thus the reliability calculation model of single folding wing is obtained. Because the unfolding time of each folding wing in the system is independent identical distribution random variable under the given wind speed, the reliability model of the mechanism system can be obtained by statistical averaging the conditional reliability of each folding wing in the system within the range of all possible wind speeds. The example analysis shows that the new model can accurately calculate the reliability of the folding wing mechanism system under the condition of common cause failure, and only need to obtain the distribution of the expansion time under several deterministic wind speeds in order to predict the reliability of the system, which is convenient for engineering application.

Key words: deployable mechanism, system reliability, common cause failure, dissimilar-dimension interference model, Monte-Carlo random simulation

中图分类号:

V216
TB114

王博文, 谢里阳, 樊富友, 马洪义, 赵丙峰, 李海洋. 考虑共因失效的折叠翼展开机构可靠度分析[J]. 机械工程学报, 2020, 56(5): 161-171.

WANG Bowen, XIE Liyang, FAN Fuyou, MA Hongyi, ZHAO Bingfeng, LI Haiyang. Reliability Analysis of Folding Wing Deployable Mechanism Considering Common Cause Failure[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2020, 56(5): 161-171.

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考虑共因失效的折叠翼展开机构可靠度分析

Reliability Analysis of Folding Wing Deployable Mechanism Considering Common Cause Failure

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