• CN:11-2187/TH
  • ISSN:0577-6686

机械工程学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (18): 180-186.doi: 10.3901/JME.2019.18.180

• 交叉与前沿 • 上一篇    

基于时间和当前状态的退化与冲击模型

王嘉1,2, 张露予1,2, 陶友瑞1,2, 李志刚1,2   

  1. 1. 河北工业大学省部共建电工装备可靠性与智能化国家重点实验室 天津 300401;
    2. 河北工业大学机械工程学院 天津 300401
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-27 修回日期:2019-02-22 发布日期:2020-01-07
  • 通讯作者: 张露予(通信作者),女,1989年出生,博士。主要研究方向为工业机器人故障诊断及可靠性预测。E-mail:zhangluyu2011@163.com
  • 作者简介:王嘉,女,1988年出生,博士。主要研究方向为退化建模及可靠性评估。E-mail:jwangno1@163.com;陶友瑞,男,1973年出生,博士,教授。主要研究方向为复杂系统可靠性分析方法。E-mail:taoyourui@hebut.edu.cn;李志刚,男,1955年出生,博士,教授,博士研究生导师。主要研究方向为可靠性试验与检测技术。E-mail:zgli@hebut.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2017YFB1301300)、国家自然科学基金(51675173)、国家科技支撑计划(2015BAA09B01)和河北省自然科学基金重点(E2017202284)资助项目。

Degradation and Random Shock Model Based on Age and Current State

WANG Jia1,2, ZHANG Luyu1,2, TAO Yourui1,2, LI Zhigang1,2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401;
    2. School of Mechanical Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401
  • Received:2018-08-27 Revised:2019-02-22 Published:2020-01-07

摘要: 电工装备、机械系统等工作环境复杂多变,运行过程中会遭受如老化、磨损等自身的自然退化过程,还面临诸如高温、高压等来自外界环境的随机冲击。由于系统自身的鲁棒性和抵抗冲击的能力会随着系统健康状态不同而发生改变,当系统处于相对健康状态时,其抵抗冲击能力较强,当系统健康状态较差时,其抵抗冲击能力随之下降,因此同样强度的冲击产生在系统不同健康状态时对系统造成的损伤也会存在差异。然而,现有研究通常忽略系统当前健康状态对随机冲击带给自然退化过程损伤的影响,当系统相对健康情况下可能低估其可靠性,反之则会高估其可靠性。提出一种时间状态相关的退化与冲击模型,该模型在通用退化路径模型的基础上,考虑将当前状态作为影响因子,纳入随机冲击对退化过程带来的损伤中,具体体现为嵌套一个与当前状态相关的状态函数。通过两个实例将提出的基于时间与当前状态的退化与冲击模型与仅考虑时间的退化与冲击模型进行了对比,结果表明:不考虑当前状态的退化与冲击模型会高估系统可靠性,并且在退化与冲击系统中同时考虑时间和系统当前健康状态获得的可靠性评估结果更加准确合理。

关键词: 随机冲击, 当前状态, 通用退化模型, 可靠性评估

Abstract: Electrical and mechanical systems often suffer from competing risks, including degradation process, like aging, wear, etc., and random shocks such as extremely high temperature or sudden high voltage. While due to the fact that the resistance and robust of systems vary according to their health state, that is, the system's resistance to shocks is stronger when it is in a healthier state compared with that of a worse state. The reported work often does not consider the current state as a factor that can influence the consequence of shocks toward degradation process, which may underestimate the reliability when the system is healthier, and overestimate the reliability vice versa. Hence, an age-and state-dependent degradation and shock model based on general path model is proposed, in which the cumulative increments and the degradation process is considered to be dependent and governed by the current degradation state. Two examples are illustrated to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model. The results show that models do not consider the influence of current degradation state may overestimate the reliability, and the proposed model with the consideration of current state can obtain a more realistic and reasonable result for reliability estimation.

Key words: random shocks, current state, general path model, reliability estimation

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