基于互依关系的退化与随机冲击建模研究

doi:10.3901/JME.2021.02.230

机械工程学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (2): 230-238.doi: 10.3901/JME.2021.02.230

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基于互依关系的退化与随机冲击建模研究

王嘉^1,2, 张云安³, 韩旭^1,2

1. 河北工业大学省部共建电工装备可靠性与智能化国家重点实验室天津 300401;
2. 河北工业大学机械工程学院天津 300401;
3. 国防科技大学装备综合保障技术重点实验室长沙 410073

收稿日期:2020-01-29 修回日期:2020-09-05 出版日期:2021-01-20 发布日期:2021-03-15
通讯作者: 韩旭(通信作者),男,1968年出生,博士,教授。主要研究方向为复杂装备可靠性技术、机械设计理论等。E-mail:xhan@hebut.edu.cn
作者简介:王嘉,女,1988年出生,博士后。主要研究方向为退化建模及可靠性评估。E-mail:jwangno1@163.com;张云安,男,1983年出生,博士,副教授。主要研究方向为复杂系统可靠性评估。E-mail:yazhang@nudt.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（51705526，72001069）、国家重点研发计划（2017YFB1301300）、中国博士后科学基金（2020M670612）和国防科技大学装备综合保障技术重点实验室资助项目。

Research on the Degradation Process and Random Shocks Modeling Based on Their Interdependency

WANG Jia^1,2, ZHANG Yunan³, HAN Xu^1,2

1. State Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401;
2. School of Mechanical Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401;
3. Laboratory of Science and Technology on Integrated Logistics Support, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073

Received:2020-01-29 Revised:2020-09-05 Online:2021-01-20 Published:2021-03-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 复杂系统内部的零件老化、疲劳等自然退化以及外界环境诸如高温、高压等随机冲击均会引发系统失效，失效类型包括系统自然退化和非致命冲击带给其累积退化增量的综合影响超过特定阈值诱发的软失效，以及致命冲击造成的硬失效。现有研究大多考虑随机冲击带给自然退化过程的作用，忽略自然退化过程同样会对随机冲击产生影响。提出一种基于互依关系的退化与冲击模型，该模型的互依关系体现在两方面：非致命冲击会带给自然退化过程累积退化增量；反过来自然退化过程也会影响冲击过程，表现为随机冲击分类（非致命冲击和致命冲击）的阈值随自然退化状态而变化，且非致命冲击带给系统的累积退化增量同样受其自然退化过程的影响，分别用与自然退化状态相关的函数表示。当状态函数为线性时，推导出可靠性及失效时间分布的解析表达式。通过具体案例对比提出的模型和应用较为广泛的仅考虑冲击对自然退化影响的模型，并对模型参数进行敏感度分析，结果表明，仅考虑冲击对退化过程的影响，而忽略两者互依关系的退化与冲击模型可能高估系统可靠性，状态函数参数的变化对可靠度评估影响较大，考虑退化与冲击过程的互依关系获得的结果更加准确合理。

关键词: 互依关系, 随机冲击, 退化建模, 可靠性评估, 微机电系统

Abstract: The complex system can fail due to multiple competing failure modes. And the failure is induced either by internal degradation such as aging and fatigue, or external shocks. As a result, it may fail because of soft failure, which is caused by the natural degradation and nonfatal shocks beyond a specific threshold, or hard failure triggered by fatal shocks. The reported work generally focused on the influence from random shocks to natural degradation process. Hence, an interdependent structure between the natural degradation process and random shocks is proposed and incorporated into the competing risks model. The interdependent structure includes two-fold:the impact of random shocks on the natural degradation process, which is represented by their cumulative damage to the natural degradation process; and the influence of natural degradation process toward random shocks (both the magnitude and damage of shocks), which is reflected by the natural-degradation-state varying fatal threshold, as well as the damage of nonfatal shocks. A closed-form reliability function is derived in case of the constant fatal threshold and linear state function. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate this approach. The results show that the developed interdependent relationship model can obtain a more practical estimation of the reliability, and the parameters of the state functions have a great impact on the reliability estimation.

Key words: interdependency, random shocks, degradation modeling, reliability estimation, MEMS

中图分类号:

TG156

王嘉, 张云安, 韩旭. 基于互依关系的退化与随机冲击建模研究[J]. 机械工程学报, 2021, 57(2): 230-238.

WANG Jia, ZHANG Yunan, HAN Xu. Research on the Degradation Process and Random Shocks Modeling Based on Their Interdependency[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2021, 57(2): 230-238.

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基于互依关系的退化与随机冲击建模研究

Research on the Degradation Process and Random Shocks Modeling Based on Their Interdependency

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