基于几何布朗运动的磨损寿命预测方法

doi:10.3901/JME.260579

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 面向装备可靠性工程领域中的关键性技术挑战，针对机械零件磨损预测与服役寿命评估展开创新性研究。鉴于传统Wiener过程模型基于正态分布假设的局限性(与磨粒磨损、粘着磨损等典型失效模式下呈现对数正态分布特性的实测数据存在显著偏差)，本研究提出一种基于目标增量的几何布朗运动模型，通过引入变漂移系数，精确模拟对数正态分布下的磨损动态演化过程。基于对数转换构建广义Wiener模型，并结合广义应力-强度干涉理论实现寿命预测。大样本仿真实验表明，该方法在理论预测精度和工程适用性上均显著优于Wiener过程模型。基于小样本仿真和点胶阀撞针磨损工程案例的联合验证，在磨损量符合对数正态分布的工况下，所提出的寿命预测方法较传统手段具有更优的预测精度，为重大装备的预防性维护策略制定提供创新解决方案。

关键词: 几何布朗运动, Wiener过程, 蒙特卡洛, 寿命预测

Abstract: Aiming at the critical technical challenges in equipment reliability engineering, this study conducts innovative research on wear prediction and service life assessment of mechanical components. Given the limitations of the traditional Wiener process model based on normal distribution assumptions (which exhibit significant deviations from empirical data showing log-normal distribution characteristics under typical failure modes such as abrasive wear and adhesive wear), this research proposes a geometric Brownian motion model based on target increments. By incorporating a variable drift coefficient, the model achieves precise simulation of the dynamic evolution of wear under log-normal distribution conditions. A generalized Wiener model is constructed through logarithmic transformation, enabling lifetime prediction via generalized stress-strength interference theory. Large-sample simulations demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms Wiener process models in both theoretical prediction accuracy and engineering applicability. Further validation through small-sample simulations and an engineering case study of dispensing valve needle wear confirms the method's superior performance in lifetime prediction for lognormally distributed wear scenarios, which provides innovative solutions for formulating preventive maintenance strategies for critical equipment.

Key words: geometric Brownian motion, Wiener process, Monte Carlo, life prediction

中图分类号:

TH117

刘水清, 唐致凯, 徐浩然, 韩旭. 基于几何布朗运动的磨损寿命预测方法[J]. 机械工程学报, 2026, 62(15): 497-506.

LIU Shuiqing, TANG Zhikai, XU Haoran, HAN Xu. Wear Life Prediction Method Based on Geometric Brownian Motion[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2026, 62(15): 497-506.

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链接本文: http://www.cjmenet.com.cn/CN/10.3901/JME.260579

http://www.cjmenet.com.cn/CN/Y2026/V62/I15/497

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