关键词: 风电机组, 蒙特卡罗模拟, 统计推断, 系统可靠性综合

Abstract: Only relying on life testing to conduct reliability assessment is limited, and it is an intractable problem to synthesize system reliability which consisted of units with different life distributions. In order to solve the above problems, numerical computation method based on the computer simulation is proposed. Use the unit original information sufficiently and adopt simulation testing instead of life testing, to generate sufficient amount value of simulation of system life by means of logical operation，on the basis of reliability models, and then analyze the simulation data, deduce the distribution of the system life, following test of goodness of fit, estimate the point estimation and confidence interval of the parameters and reliability measure. Allow for practical applicability of engineering, concerns of the above, can be carried out in computer. This approach could work well in the engineering to solve the complex system reliability synthesis, and be applied to system reliability synthesis and Prediction of wind turbine.

Key words: Monte Carlo simulation, Statistical inference, System reliability synthesis, Wind turbine