多退化指标条件下卫星动量轮可靠性建模与评估

doi:10.3901/JME.2022.17.067

机械工程学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (17): 67-74.doi: 10.3901/JME.2022.17.067

• 特邀专栏:先进机电装备可靠性与智能化 • 上一篇下一篇

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多退化指标条件下卫星动量轮可靠性建模与评估

许焕卫, 黄鑫, 黄洪钟, 张怀兵, 钱雨晴

电子科技大学系统可靠性和安全性研究中心成都 611731

收稿日期:2021-09-10 修回日期:2021-12-30 发布日期:2022-11-07
作者简介:许焕卫,男,1974年出生,博士,副教授,硕士研究生导师。主要研究方向为可靠性设计、优化设计、人工智能。E-mail:hwxu@uestc.edu.cn

Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Inertial Actuators Based on Inverse Gaussian Process of Individual Differences

XU Huanwei, HUANG Xin, HUANG Hongzhong, ZHANG Huaibing, QIAN Yuqing

System Reliability and Safety Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology, Chengdu 611731

Received:2021-09-10 Revised:2021-12-30 Published:2022-11-07
Contact: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51975106)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 卫星动量轮具有小样本、高成本、故障机理复杂等特点。此类产品的性能退化过程受润滑剂余量、电流、温度等众多因素共同影响，各影响因素之间会彼此相互作用，单独提取某一个性能指标的退化过程作为评估动量轮的寿命及可靠性的模型都是不全面的。为了更加准确地评估卫星动量轮的可靠性，建立了基于Copula函数的多退化指标动量轮可靠性评估模型。首先通过历史退化数据建立单个退化指标基于Wiener过程的模型；其次基于Bayes方法和Gibbs抽样，利用OpenBUGS软件对Wiener过程模型进行参数估计。在考虑退化指标相关时，用最大似然估计方法对Copula函数的模型参数进行估计；最后通过AIC/BIC准则选取最为合适的Copula函数，完成了动量轮基于Copula函数的多退化指标的可靠性建模与评估，为卫星动量轮的寿命预测与可靠性评估提供了理论基础和技术支撑。

关键词: 动量轮, 多退化指标, Wiener过程, Copula函数, 可靠性建模与评估

Abstract: Satellite momentum wheels are characterized by small sample size, high cost, and complex failure mechanism. The degradation process of such products is affected by many factors such as lubricant margin, current, temperature, etc., them affect each other, and the degradation process of a performance index extracted separately as a model to assess the life and reliability of momentum wheels are not comprehensive. In order to evaluate the reliability of satellite momentum wheels more accurately, a multi-degradation indicator momentum wheel reliability assessment model based on Copula function is established. At first, through historical degradation data establish the Wiener process-based model of individual degradation indicators; secondly, the parameters in the Wiener process model are estimated based on Bayes method and Gibbs sampling using OpenBUGS software, and using maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate the unknown parameters of Copula function; finally, Copula function is selected through the AIC/BIC criterion, to finish the momentum wheel’s reliability modeling and evaluation of the multi-degradation index based on the Copula function. For the life prediction and reliability assessment of satellite momentum wheels the work provides a theoretical basis and technical support.

Key words: momentum wheel, multiple degradation indexes, wiener process, copula function, reliability evaluation

中图分类号:

V448

许焕卫, 黄鑫, 黄洪钟, 张怀兵, 钱雨晴. 多退化指标条件下卫星动量轮可靠性建模与评估[J]. 机械工程学报, 2022, 58(17): 67-74.

XU Huanwei, HUANG Xin, HUANG Hongzhong, ZHANG Huaibing, QIAN Yuqing. Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Inertial Actuators Based on Inverse Gaussian Process of Individual Differences[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 58(17): 67-74.

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多退化指标条件下卫星动量轮可靠性建模与评估

Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Inertial Actuators Based on Inverse Gaussian Process of Individual Differences

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