基于复合非齐次泊松过程的不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测

doi:10.3901/JME.2020.22.014

机械工程学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (22): 14-23.doi: 10.3901/JME.2020.22.014

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基于复合非齐次泊松过程的不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测

王泽洲, 陈云翔, 蔡忠义, 项华春, 王莉莉

空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院西安 710051

收稿日期:2019-11-01 修回日期:2020-04-09 出版日期:2020-11-20 发布日期:2020-12-31
通讯作者: 蔡忠义(通信作者),男,1988年出生,博士,副教授。主要研究方向为可靠性、剩余寿命预测。E-mail:afeuczy@163.com
作者简介:王泽洲,男,1992年出生,博士研究生。主要研究方向为可靠性、剩余寿命预测。E-mail:350276267@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（71901216）和中国博士后科学基金（2017M623415）资助项目。

Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of the Equipment Subjected to Imperfect Maintenance Based on the Compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process

WANG Zezhou, CHEN Yunxiang, CAI Zhongyi, XIANG Huachun, WANG Lili

Equipment Management & UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051

Received:2019-11-01 Revised:2020-04-09 Online:2020-11-20 Published:2020-12-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对现有不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测方法难以准确反映设备真实维修规律的问题，提出一种基于复合非齐次泊松过程的不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测方法。基于非线性Wiener过程构建设备随机退化模型；假设不完美维修次数存在上限值，并据此建立基于复合非齐次泊松过程的不完美维修模型；然后，基于设备的随机退化模型与不完美维修模型构建综合退化模型，并采用极大似然方法估计模型参数；基于首达时间的概念，推导出不完美维修设备剩余寿命的概率密度函数。实例分析表明，所提方法能够有效提升不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测的准确性，具备工程应用前景。

关键词: 剩余寿命预测, 不完美维修, Wiener过程, 复合非齐次泊松过程

Abstract: The current remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction methods of the equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance aren't the real reflection of the maintenance law. A new remaining useful lifetime prediction method of the equipment subject ed to imperfect maintenance based on the compound nonhomogeneous Poisson process is proposed. Firstly, the stochastic degradation model is constructed based on the nonlinear Wiener process. Secondly, the upper limit value of imperfect maintenance times is assumed, and an imperfect maintenance model based on compound nonhomogeneous Poisson process is established. Then, the comprehensive degradation model is established by combing the stochastic degradation model and the imperfect maintenance model, and the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. Finally, based on the concept of the first passage time, the probability density function of the RUL is derived. The example analysis shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of the RUL prediction of the equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance, which has engineering application prospects.

Key words: remaining useful lifetime prediction, imperfect maintenance, Wiener process, compound nonhomogeneous Poisson process

中图分类号:

TB114

王泽洲, 陈云翔, 蔡忠义, 项华春, 王莉莉. 基于复合非齐次泊松过程的不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测[J]. 机械工程学报, 2020, 56(22): 14-23.

WANG Zezhou, CHEN Yunxiang, CAI Zhongyi, XIANG Huachun, WANG Lili. Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of the Equipment Subjected to Imperfect Maintenance Based on the Compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2020, 56(22): 14-23.

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基于复合非齐次泊松过程的不完美维修设备剩余寿命预测

Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of the Equipment Subjected to Imperfect Maintenance Based on the Compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process

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