关键词: 不确定性, 不确定性传播, 多学科设计优化, 多学科系统, 协同

Abstract: Uncertainties in multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) have a significant influence on the whole design process of the engineering system. The existing definitions of uncertainties are compared and classified. The uncertainties in multidisciplinary system and their propagation processes are described in detail. On the basis of the existing methods for uncertainty analysis, a new method for uncertainty analysis in multidisciplinary, i.e. collaborative uncertainty analysis (CUA), is proposed, and its particular computational process is described in detail. The CUA is an approach that utilizes Taylor approximation to evaluate the variance of the coupled variables and the system outputs, and then obtains the robust optimum solution through quadratic optimization. The computational results of the example indicate that the collaborative uncertainty analysis method (CUA) is not only feasible but also has very high accuracy, and it is an effective method to analyze the uncertainties in multidisciplinary system.

Key words: Collaboration, Multidisciplinary design optimization, Multidisciplinary system, Uncertainty, Uncertainty propagation