关键词: 复杂系统;可靠性预测;系统可靠性综合;可靠性增长预测;可用性

Abstract: Complex systems reliability synthesis, reliability growth and reliability prediction have become three important research directions in reliability engineering, and how to evaluate and predict complex electromechanical system reliability is a bottleneck problem, which is proposed according to engineering practice, during the whole process of project approachment, initial design, development, pilot run, and manufacture stage. Some theory and method for system reliability synthesis with different unit distributions, system reliability growth analysis during pilot run, system reliability growth prediction, and system availability assessment are discussed, based on pre-analysis, middle-analysis, and postmortem analysis. New idea is proposed for the problem according to specific engineering background, and instance validation is given. Research provides theoretical basis and technical support for large-scale complex electromechanical systems reliability study.

Key words: complex electromechanical system;reliability prediction;system reliability synthesis;reliability growth prediction;