关键词: 技术进化, 技术预测, 破坏性创新, 破坏性创新实现模型, 破坏性进化节点

Abstract: Disruptive innovation (DI) is a kind of technology innovation which is cheaper, better, and more convenient. DI can create enterprise technology growth and establish entirely new enterprises through its newly developed products. Because existing Disruptive innovation roadmapping can’t search for disruptive technologies effectively, to develop effective new products in the maturity period becomes quite difficult, in intensive of fierce market competition. DI roadmapping is in-depth studied based on the occurring conditions of DI. In order to investigate the predictability of disruptive technology, the disruptive bifurcation points on technological evolution path and the technological evolution process of DI are discussed. Finally, detailed process models of new-market DI and low-end DI are established. This methodology can be used for both developing new products of newly built enterprises and helping more senior enterprises to predict the future of technologies.

Key words: Disruptive bifurcation point, Disruptive innovation, Process model of disruptive innovation, Technological evolution, Technology forecasting