关键词: 设计迭代, 设计结构矩阵, 时间不确定性, 研制过程

Abstract: The iteration is one of the basic characteristics in the development process. Through the sequential design iteration analysis for the product development, taking the issue of time uncertainty into account, a predictive model of sequential iteration in development process is built by applying the multi-stage Markov process. Based on that, an optimized modeling for the development process targeting at minimized completion time under given risk level is achieved. Case studies have been used to demonstrate how the time prediction and process optimization modeling method works. The simulation technique is used to further confirm the results from this analytical model. The method can reflect the characteristic of the sequential iterative in the engineering design and is proved as an efficient tool to optimize the product development process and shorten the development cycle.

Key words: Design iteration, Design structure matrix, Development process, Time uncertainty