• CN:11-2187/TH
  • ISSN:0577-6686

›› 2004, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 183-187.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑概率与置信度的疲劳裂纹扩展率模型及其参数测定方法

杨冰;赵永翔;何朝明;王明新   

  1. 西南交通大学牵引动力国家重点实验室
  • 发布日期:2004-06-15

PROBABILITY-CONFIDENCE FATIGUE CRACK GROWTH RATE MODEL AND ESTIMATION METHOD

Yang Bing;Zhao Yongxiang;He Chaoming;Wang Mingxin   

  1. National Key Traction Power Laboratory, Southwest Jiaotong University
  • Published:2004-06-15

摘要: 提出了一种描述随机疲劳裂纹扩展的概率模型,考虑了数据随机特性(即存活概率问题)和样本数量(即置信度问题)两方面对概率评价的影响。模型建立在从优化拟合效果和进一步利用试验信息角度改进后的Paris公式基础上。考虑整套试验数据的随机特性,利用极大似然法原理和数学规划法求解模型参数。对16MnR钢试验数据的分析验证了模型和方法的有效性。

关键词: 概率分析, 裂纹扩展, 疲劳, 置信度

Abstract: A probabilistic model is suggested for charactering the random fatigue crack growth. It is considered of the probabilistic effects of scattering regularity and amount of the test data. The model is established on an improved Paris equation, which is developed from a consideration of better-fit effects and more application of the test information. The parameters of model are measured by taking into account the stochastic characteristic of entire test data, which is connected with a maximum likelihood method and math programming. Availability and feasibility are indicated by an analysis of the 16MnR steel test data.

Key words: Confidence, Crack growth, Fatigue, Probabilistic analysis

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