Generalized Probability and Interval Hybrid Reliability Analysis Based on Two-stage Active Learning Kriging Model

doi:10.3901/JME.2022.06.274

Abstract

Abstract: A generalized hybrid reliability analysis(HRA) method under probability and interval uncertainties by a two-stage active learning Kriging (TALK) model is proposed. The proposed TALK-HRA method can effectively deal with the probability and interval model, interval-probability model, as well as their combination. A first-stage active learning Kriging model is first established to locally select the high-risk points that may cross the limit state surface so as to predict the separator determining sign of performance functions accurately, and it lays the foundation for the calculation of the failure probability under the given interval. Then, a second-stage Kriging model is further constructed by approximating the region of interest around the maximal or minimal failure probability to calculate the upper and lower bounds of the failure probability. The possible application to random-fuzzy reliability analysis is also discussed. Finally, five numerical examples are investigated to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can not only calculate the reliability of multiple types of probability interval hybrid models accurately and efficiently, but also be well applicable to the HRA of ‘black box’ problems with high nonlinearity as well as multi-peak limit state surface.

Key words: active learning Kriging, probability and interval uncertainties, hybrid reliability analysis, random-fuzzy reliability

CLC Number:

TG156

YU Mengchen, LONG Xiangyun. Generalized Probability and Interval Hybrid Reliability Analysis Based on Two-stage Active Learning Kriging Model[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 58(6): 274-288.

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URL: http://www.cjmenet.com.cn/EN/10.3901/JME.2022.06.274

http://www.cjmenet.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V58/I6/274

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