Reliability Analysis of Folding Wing Deployable Mechanism Considering Common Cause Failure

doi:10.3901/JME.2020.05.161

Abstract

Abstract: The common cause failure problem is one of the important contents of the system reliability research, but the common cause failure effect is often neglected in the mechanism system motion reliability analysis at present. Because of the external factors (loads) which affect the motion of the mechanism and the motion parameters (time required for movement) are physical quantities of different dimensions, therefore there is no such simple and effective mechanism reliability model as the "stress-strength" interference model. The virtual prototype of folding-wing deployable mechanism system is established by combining experiment and simulation, and Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to verify the existence of common cause failure phenomenon in the system composed of multi-group folding wing deployable mechanism, a new reliability model of mechanism system considering common cause failure effect is proposed. The new model reinterprets the basic concept of interference analysis of two random variables according to the meaning of probabilistic statistical average, and extends it to the stochastic wind speed weighted average model of conditional reliability of folding wing deployable mechanism under given wind speed,thus the reliability calculation model of single folding wing is obtained. Because the unfolding time of each folding wing in the system is independent identical distribution random variable under the given wind speed, the reliability model of the mechanism system can be obtained by statistical averaging the conditional reliability of each folding wing in the system within the range of all possible wind speeds. The example analysis shows that the new model can accurately calculate the reliability of the folding wing mechanism system under the condition of common cause failure, and only need to obtain the distribution of the expansion time under several deterministic wind speeds in order to predict the reliability of the system, which is convenient for engineering application.

Key words: deployable mechanism, system reliability, common cause failure, dissimilar-dimension interference model, Monte-Carlo random simulation

CLC Number:

V216
TB114

WANG Bowen, XIE Liyang, FAN Fuyou, MA Hongyi, ZHAO Bingfeng, LI Haiyang. Reliability Analysis of Folding Wing Deployable Mechanism Considering Common Cause Failure[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2020, 56(5): 161-171.

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