Accelerated Degradation Modeling and Reliability Estimation for Harmonic Drives in Industrial Robots Considering Periodic Shocks

doi:10.3901/JME.260479

Abstract

Abstract: The accuracy of reliability assessment for harmonic drives in industrial robots depends on the extent to which accelerated degradation models (ADMs) can reflect actual service conditions and on the validity of accelerated degradation testing methods. However, existing ADMs and test methods often fail to adequately characterize the periodic shock loads experienced by harmonic drives under complex operating conditions, such as variable speed and load, forward-reverse switching, and abrupt starts and stops. As a result, the degradation behavior of harmonic drives is difficult to characterize accurately, which undermines the credibility of reliability assessment results. To address this issue, this study develops a novel ADM for harmonic drives that explicitly incorporates periodic shock loads. Periodic step shocks are introduced into a Wiener process to capture abrupt performance changes induced by shocks during operating-condition transitions. In addition, a shock influence factor is incorporated into a power-law acceleration model to establish the relationship between shock loads and degradation rate, and the resulting ADM is formulated based on the acceleration factor constant principle. To ensure model accuracy, a hybrid parameter estimation approach combining Latin hypercube sampling and a genetic algorithm is employed for high-dimensional nonlinear estimation, and the 95% confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Furthermore, a service load spectrum-driven accelerated degradation testing method is proposed based on measured load spectrum data from industrial robots. Following the principle of equivalent torque consistency, a multi-level accelerated loading spectrum is designed to simulate variable-speed, variable-load, and shock conditions. Accelerated degradation tests are then conducted on three harmonic drives to obtain transmission error degradation data for reliability assessment. The results show that the proposed model provides higher reliability assessment accuracy than existing models and enables more accurate prediction of the service life of harmonic drives.

Key words: accelerated degradation test, industrial robot, accelerated degradation model, reliability estimation, harmonic drive

CLC Number:

TG156

WANG Jia, YIN Huiqiang, WANG Chongshuai, HAN Xu. Accelerated Degradation Modeling and Reliability Estimation for Harmonic Drives in Industrial Robots Considering Periodic Shocks[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2026, 62(12): 22-32.

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URL: http://www.cjmenet.com.cn/EN/10.3901/JME.260479

http://www.cjmenet.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V62/I12/22

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