Abstract: Mission Reliability is the ability of a weapon system to execute training or battle missions in specified time under given maintenance support conditions, and thus it is significant to the evaluation of overall performance of weapon systems. The probabilistic model checking technique is introduced to the mission reliability evaluation process of complex weapon systems. Taking a gun-missile system as an example, the evolutionary process of weapon system is modeled using process algebra language, and various evaluation indices, such as mission reliability, mission availability, mission performance et al, are presented using continuous stochastic formulas, and furthermore they are automatically computed using a probabilistic model checker. The approach can efficiently simplify evaluation modeling process and complicated analysis and computation process of various evaluation indices, and during the problem-solving process, multiple optimization techniques are applied to enhance computational efficiency. Hence, it is more suitable for use in engineering practice than traditional analytical approach.

Key words: Maintenance support, Mission reliability, Probabilistic model checking, Reliability evaluation