Abstract: A mathematical model of the reliability prediction of generating units is presented, together with the reliability prediction method. Based on statistical analysis of operation reliability past data for generating units, statistical values of the repair factor and the mathematical model’s parameters of the repair factor are determined. According to plan repair outage days and the mathematical model for the repair factor of a generating unit, equivalent availability factor (EAF) of the generating unit could be predicted in future three years. The reliability prediction examples for sub-critical 300 MW, supercritical 600 MW and sub-critical 600 MW fossil units are given together with reliability prediction results of 550 MW hydro units and 984 MW, 990 MW nuclear units. The relative error’s range for equivalent availability factor prediction values of the generating units is between –1.48% to 2.69% which indicates that reliability prediction precision is higher. By using of the reliability prediction method, prediction values for the reliability indexes of generating units can be quantitatively calculated which provides a basis for reliability objective management and optimization repair of generating units.

Key words: Equivalent availability factor, Generating unit, Reliability, Reliability prediction