Abstract: This article applys the grey system theory in the analyse of machinery engineering reliability and form a now theory and method in analyse of machinery reliability. By this idetification, many problems solved which needed experiments in mathematical and physical data. According to the actual computing, this now method net only keeps the aoulty of data, but also decrease the test time and the damage of test pieces . Therefore it will have considerable economical value.

Key words: GM模型预测, 灰色判定, 机械可靠性