• CN:11-2187/TH
  • ISSN:0577-6686

机械工程学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (20): 202-208.doi: 10.3901/JME.2017.20.202

• 交叉与前沿 • 上一篇    


曹颖赛, 刘思峰, 方志耕, 张秦   

  1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院 南京 210016
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-08 修回日期:2017-04-05 出版日期:2017-10-20 发布日期:2017-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 曹颖赛(通信作者),男,1990年出生,博士研究生.主要研究方向为可靠性分析、不确定性分析理论.E-mail:caoys2016@nuaa.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘思峰,男,1955年出生,博士,教授,博士研究生导师.主要研究为灰色系统理论、复杂装备研制管理等.E-mail:sfliu@nuaa.edu.cn;方志耕,男,1962年出生,博士,教授,博士研究生导师.主要研究方向为质量管理与控制、复杂装备研制管理等.E-mail:zhigengfang@163.com;张秦,男,1992年出生,硕士研究生.主要研究方向为不确定性分析理论.E-mail:2468279002@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

Shapley Value Allocation Model of Responsibility during the Degradation of System Reliability

CAO Yingsai, LIU Sifeng, FANG Zhigeng, ZHANG Qin   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 210016
  • Received:2016-10-08 Revised:2017-04-05 Online:2017-10-20 Published:2017-10-20

摘要: 针对系统可靠性退化过程中其组成单元的责任追溯问题,基于合作博弈思想提出一种系统可靠性退化的单元责任Shapley值分配模型,并给出了模型的构建过程和求解步骤。在确定单元退化联盟的形成规则、种类和数量的基础上,求解出了每种单元退化联盟的责任分配权重;提出并证明了基于联盟组成单元结构关系的责任分配特征函数;运用仿真方法验证了模型求解结果的正确性和合理性。最后结合实例研究,说明了所提模型的可行性和有效性。

关键词: Shapley值, 仿真, 系统可靠性退化, 责任分配

Abstract: Using the cooperative game theory, the allocation of responsibility during the reliability degradation of system which has many composing components and complex structure is studied. A Shapley value allocation model of responsibility during the degradation of system reliability is constructed. The construction process and solution steps of the model are combed as well. Based on the cooperation rules between components and the types, quantities and forming probatility of cooperative alliance are obtained. Characteristic function of the responsibility allocation which is based on the structure relation of the coalition is also proposed and proved. The correctness and rationality of the model is verified based on the simulation method. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed model is feasible and effective by contrast with the traditional reliability allocation methods.

Key words: responsibility allocation, Shapley value, simulation, system reliability degradation