Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of the Equipment Subjected to Imperfect Maintenance Based on the Compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process

doi:10.3901/JME.2020.22.014

Abstract

Abstract: The current remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction methods of the equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance aren't the real reflection of the maintenance law. A new remaining useful lifetime prediction method of the equipment subject ed to imperfect maintenance based on the compound nonhomogeneous Poisson process is proposed. Firstly, the stochastic degradation model is constructed based on the nonlinear Wiener process. Secondly, the upper limit value of imperfect maintenance times is assumed, and an imperfect maintenance model based on compound nonhomogeneous Poisson process is established. Then, the comprehensive degradation model is established by combing the stochastic degradation model and the imperfect maintenance model, and the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. Finally, based on the concept of the first passage time, the probability density function of the RUL is derived. The example analysis shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of the RUL prediction of the equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance, which has engineering application prospects.

Key words: remaining useful lifetime prediction, imperfect maintenance, Wiener process, compound nonhomogeneous Poisson process

CLC Number:

TB114

WANG Zezhou, CHEN Yunxiang, CAI Zhongyi, XIANG Huachun, WANG Lili. Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of the Equipment Subjected to Imperfect Maintenance Based on the Compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2020, 56(22): 14-23.

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