Degradation and Random Shock Model Based on Age and Current State

doi:10.3901/JME.2019.18.180

Abstract

Abstract: Electrical and mechanical systems often suffer from competing risks, including degradation process, like aging, wear, etc., and random shocks such as extremely high temperature or sudden high voltage. While due to the fact that the resistance and robust of systems vary according to their health state, that is, the system's resistance to shocks is stronger when it is in a healthier state compared with that of a worse state. The reported work often does not consider the current state as a factor that can influence the consequence of shocks toward degradation process, which may underestimate the reliability when the system is healthier, and overestimate the reliability vice versa. Hence, an age-and state-dependent degradation and shock model based on general path model is proposed, in which the cumulative increments and the degradation process is considered to be dependent and governed by the current degradation state. Two examples are illustrated to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model. The results show that models do not consider the influence of current degradation state may overestimate the reliability, and the proposed model with the consideration of current state can obtain a more realistic and reasonable result for reliability estimation.

Key words: random shocks, current state, general path model, reliability estimation

CLC Number:

TG156

WANG Jia, ZHANG Luyu, TAO Yourui, LI Zhigang. Degradation and Random Shock Model Based on Age and Current State[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 55(18): 180-186.

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