基于数字孪生的生产安全风险实时评估方法

doi:10.3901/JME.2025.12.315

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在危险产品自动化生产时，设备失能等异常情况将导致风险事故。因此，为有效预防人员伤亡和减少财产损失，基于现场状况监测的风险实时评估迫在眉睫。首先，从时空域交叉的角度表征了车间实时风险。其次在实时风险表征基础上，构建一个综合物理、映射和预仿真的数字孪生三重空间实时风险评估框架；采用Agent建模方法，对风险要素-状态环境、灾害事件和承灾者分别进行建模；详细设计多源数据与事故机理在这三重空间内的交互逻辑。最后，将所提方法应用在某火工品生产单元中，验证所提出的方法在实际应用场景下的有效性。该方法集成生产行为、设备状态、环境等多个维度的信息，能够实时评估风险，突破传统方法的局限，为自主低风险火工品生产探索了新的技术路径，为黑灯工厂的实现提供技术支持。

关键词: 实时风险评估, 数字孪生, Agent模型, 生产安全

Abstract: In the automated production of dangerous products, equipment failures and other exceptional situations can lead to risk accidents. Therefore, effective real-time risk assessment based on on-site condition monitoring is crucial to prevent personnel injuries and reduce property losses. Firstly, the workshop's real-time risks are characterized from the perspective of spatiotemporal cross-analysis. Secondly, based on this real-time risk characterization, a comprehensive framework for real-time risk assessment in a digital twin environment that integrates physical modeling, mapping, and pre-simulation is constructed. Utilizing an agent-based modeling approach, the risk factors-state environment, disaster events, and vulnerable entities-are modeled separately. The interaction logic between multi-source data and accident mechanisms within these three spatial dimensions is designed in detail. Finally, the proposed method is applied in a specific pyrotechnic product production unit, demonstrating its effectiveness in practical application scenarios. This method integrates information across multiple dimensions, including production behavior, equipment status, and environmental conditions, enabling real-time risk assessment. It overcomes the limitations of traditional methods and explores new technological pathways for autonomous low-risk production of pyrotechnic products, providing technical support for the realization of dark factory environments.

Key words: real-time risk assessment, digital twin, agent-based model, production safety

中图分类号:

TJ05

袁堂晓, 吴亲亲, 柳林燕, 汪惠芬, 田双. 基于数字孪生的生产安全风险实时评估方法[J]. 机械工程学报, 2025, 61(12): 315-326.

YUAN Tangxiao, WU Qinqin, LIU Linyan, WANG Huifen, TIAN Shuang. Real-time Evaluation Method for Production Safety Risks Based on Digital Twin[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2025, 61(12): 315-326.

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